Nickel & lithium carbonate price hiking impact to BEV & HEV battery industry analysis

Hello Yesa, I saw the Nickel and Lithium carbonate price is hiking to RMB 150,000/ton now in China, what is the world wide price trend? also potential impact to BEV and Hev battery price and supply in coming 6 month? thanks

Yes, Worldwide Price Trends for Lithium Carbonate and Nickel is in creasing. Lithium carbonate and nickel prices have indeed been on an upward trajectory globally, driven by strong demand from electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage systems (ESS), and supply-side constraints. The user's mentioned price of RMB 150,000/ton (approximately $20,800 USD/ton at current exchange rates) aligns closely with recent spot prices in China for lithium carbonate, which have surged from lows in mid-2025. Below is a breakdown of current trends based on market data as of January 2026.

Lithium Carbonate Price

● TrendCurrent Global Prices: Spot prices in China, the world's largest market, reached around 151,000 CNY/ton ($21,000 USD/ton) as of January 19, 2026, up over 50% in the past month and nearly 94% year-over-year. Worldwide assessments show similar rallies: CIF China/Japan/Korea prices have pushed above $20,000 USD/ton, the highest since November 2023. Regional variations include North America at ~$9,120/ton, Europe at ~$10,940/ton, and Northeast Asia at ~$12,040/ton, though these reflect averaged indexes and may lag spot surges.

● Recent Trend:Prices bottomed out around 59,000 CNY/ton in June 2025 before doubling by year-end, fueled by supply disruptions, inventory drawdowns, and accelerating ESS demand. Globally, lithium carbonate rose 56% in 2025, from ~$10,800/ton in January to ~$16,900/ton by December. Forecasts for 2026 suggest volatility, with averages potentially ranging from 80,000-200,000 CNY/ton ($11,400-$28,600 USD/ton), shifting from surplus to potential deficits as demand grows 17-30% while supply rises 19-34%.

● Key Drivers: Tightening inventories in China (down since September 2025), strong EV/ESS growth, and production controls. Analysts like Morgan Stanley predict an 80,000-ton deficit in lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) for 2026. Supply is expected to grow 10% to 1.63 million tons LCE, but energy storage is emerging as a major outperformer.

Nickel Price Trend

● Current Global Prices:As of January 20, 2026, nickel traded at $18,080/ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME), up 18.5% in the past month and 13% year-over-year. SHFE futures in China are around 145,000-146,000 CNY/ton ($20,000 USD/ton).

● Recent Trend: Prices hit a 19-month high of $18,700/ton in mid-January 2026, extending a 30% rally since mid-December 2025. Globally, 2025 saw prices average ~$15,000/ton, down from 2024 highs but rebounding late in the year. Forecasts for 2026 point to averages around $15,250-16,000/ton, with upside risks from disruptions. Some optimistic views suggest potential spikes to $25,000/ton if supply tightens further.

● Key Drivers:Indonesia, the top supplier, cut 2026 ore quotas by 34% to conserve high-grade resources and align with processing capacity, supporting prices amid oversupply concerns.  Demand from stainless steel (64% of use) and batteries remains strong, with EV-related nickel demand forecast to grow 7% annually and double to 5-6 million tons by 2030. However, a global surplus of ~261,000 tons is expected in 2026.

Potential Impact on BEV and HEV Battery Prices and Supply in the Coming 6 Months (to July 2026)

Rising lithium and nickel prices are likely to exert upward pressure on battery costs in the short term, particularly for nickel-dependent chemistries, but efficiencies and shifts to cheaper alternatives may mitigate broader impacts. BEVs (battery electric vehicles) rely heavily on lithium-ion batteries, while HEVs (hybrid electric vehicles) often use nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) or lithium-ion packs. Here's the outlook:

Battery Price Impacts

● Short-Term Rise Expected: Lithium prices have already driven battery cell costs up 15-20% recently, with average battery-grade lithium carbonate rising 17% month-over-month in December 2025 to $14,800/ton. This could push lithium-ion pack prices from 2025's record low of $108/kWh toward $110-120/kWh in early 2026, especially for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) chemistries (which use both metals and averaged $128/kWh in 2025). Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) packs, common in cheaper BEVs and HEVs, are less affected ($81/kWh in 2025) as they avoid nickel and cobalt.

● Overall Trend: Despite metal price hikes, global lithium-ion pack prices fell in 2025 due to overcapacity, intense competition, and LFP adoption. Analysts expect a slight decrease or stabilization in 2026 (~$100-105/kWh average), as manufacturing efficiencies (e.g., automation) offset raw material costs, which make up 20-25% of EV battery expenses. However, if lithium surges toward $28,000/ton, battery prices could rise modestly, adding $500-1,000 to BEV/HEV costs.

● BEV vs. HEV Specificity:BEVs, with larger packs (50-100 kWh), face higher absolute cost increases ($500-2,000/vehicle if packs rise 5-10%). HEVs, with smaller packs (1-5 kWh), see smaller impacts ($50-200/vehicle). NiMH batteries in some HEVs are more sensitive to nickel but less common now.

Battery Supply Impacts

● Potential Tightening:Rising prices signal tightening supply, with lithium demand growing 17-30% in 2026 amid ESS booms (71% growth in 2025, 55% in 2026). Nickel supply remains in surplus, but Indonesian cuts could constrain ore for battery-grade material. In the next 6 months, this may lead to spot shortages for high-nickel NMC batteries, prompting shifts to LFP (expanding in Europe/US via plants like CATL's in Spain by late 2026).

● Mitigating Factors: Overcapacity in cell manufacturing (e.g., in China) and hedging by automakers (e.g., long-term contracts) should maintain supply stability. EV sales growth (25 million units by 2026) may strain upstream chains, but no major disruptions are forecast unless geopolitical issues (e.g., DRC cobalt quotas) escalate.

● Broader EV Market Effects: Higher battery costs could slow BEV affordability pushes, but falling overall prices (to sub-$100/kWh for EVs) and subsidies may keep adoption on track. Supply chains are diversifying (e.g., Western projects in Canada/Tanzania), reducing risks. In the next 6 months, expect stable supply with potential price-driven delays in high-end BEV models.

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