mature time for solid battery in large scale commercial use

Hello Yesa, On June 24, 2026, Zeng Yuqun CEO of CATL thoroughly explained the solid battery development route at the Summer Davos Forum in Dalian. He presented a clear "three-step leap" framework—technology roadmap, product roadmap, and commercialization roadmap—representing three entirely distinct stages. in such case when will be the final mature time for solid battery coming into large scale commercial usage in EV & other areas and why? thanks

At the Summer Davos Forum (World Economic Forum Annual Meeting of the New Champions) in Dalian around June 23–24, 2026, Zeng described solid-state (especially all-solid-state) battery progress using a clear three-path framework that matches the “three-step leap” you mentioned:

• Technology roadmap: On a 1–9 readiness scale, the industry/CATL is only at level 4. Level 9 is required for mature technology ready for mass production. Key unresolved issues include solid-solid interfaces, internal resistance, reliability, and long-term performance/safety.
• Product roadmap: Even after technical progress, there must be sufficient scalable supply, manufacturing yield, reliability, and safety that meet automotive (or other) requirements. Small-batch/pilot production is targeted earlier.
• Commercialization roadmap: Market acceptance, cost-performance ratio, and volume sales. Batteries must become cheap enough for broad adoption. High costs (sulfide-based solid-state cells have been cited as currently 3–5× more expensive) limit early use mainly to premium segments.

Zeng has repeatedly stated that the chance of reaching million-vehicle-level installations before 2030 is “very small” or highly unlikely. Mass production of the batteries themselves is not expected to begin until around 2030, and true large-scale commercial usage in EVs follows from clearing all three paths. Innovation here is “event-driven” rather than strictly “time-driven.”

Some supporting context from CATL’s own plans are

• Small-scale/pilot production of all-solid-state cells is targeted for 2027 (reaching roughly levels 7–8). This is not mass production.
• Energy densities in prototypes have been reported in the 450–500+ Wh/kg range, but scaling, cost, interface stability, and cycle life remain hurdles.
• Semi-solid / condensed-matter / hybrid approaches are progressing faster and seeing earlier limited applications, but Zeng’s comments focus on true all-solid-state.

Why this timeline?

• Interface and manufacturing challenges that are hard to solve at scale.
• Cost and supply-chain readiness.
• Need for extensive validation of reliability/safety before automotive OEMs will adopt at volume.
• Requirement that the overall product (battery + vehicle) be competitive on price and performance for mass-market acceptance.

Other companies have more optimistic public timelines for limited production or vehicle integration, but CATL—as the world’s largest EV battery maker—has consistently been among the more cautious and realistic voices. Industry consensus broadly aligns with meaningful volume after 2030, with 2027–2029 more likely for pilots, testing, and premium/niche applications.

In short, per Zeng’s June 2026 remarks and consistent prior statements: expect limited/pilot solid-state deployment in the late 2020s, but final mature large-scale commercial usage in EVs and broader markets is not realistic before ~2030. Progress is real and CATL continues investing heavily, but the remaining gaps are significant.

Most other top-tier lithium battery producers share a broadly similar cautious realism with CATL on true large-scale commercial adoption in EVs. Large-volume, cost-competitive mass production for mainstream EVs is generally placed around 2029–2030 or later. Hence as world no. 1 lithium battery producer, CATL’s direction demonstrates most possible & correct direction in solid battery development route.

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